Do Firm-Level Shocks Generate Aggregate Fluctuations? A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper tests the granular hypothesis introduced by Gabaix (2011. “The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations.” Econometrica 79 (3): 733–72) in the US, Germany, Canada, France, Japan, and the UK. We find that firm-level idiosyncratic shocks significantly impact aggregate fluctuations in only three of the six countries analyzed. Compared to the US, Japan and Germany, the UK, France, and Canada show greater granularity, but also a negligible firm-level contribution to aggregate volatility. Additional results look at the role of the transportation sector as a potential driver of granular effects in the US, Germany and Japan.