TY - JOUR

T1 - Calibrating a dependent failure model for computing reliabilities on telecommunication networks

AU - Matus, Omar

AU - Barrera, Javiera

AU - Moreno, Eduardo

AU - Rubino, Gerardo

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © by the paper's authors.

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - In this work, we propose a methodology to calibrate a dependent failure model to compute the reliability in a telecommunication network. We use the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula model, which captures failures that arise simultaneously in groups of links. In practice, this model is difficult to calibrate because it requires the estimation of a number of parameters that is exponential in the number of links. We formulate an optimization problem to calibrate a MO copula model to attain given marginal failure probabilities for all links and the correlations between them. Using a geographic failure model, we calibrate various MO copula models using our methodology, we simulate them, and we benchmark the reliabilities thus obtained. Our experiments show that considering the simultaneous failures of small and connected subsets of links is the key to obtain a good approximation of reliability, confirming what is suggested by the telecommunication literature.

AB - In this work, we propose a methodology to calibrate a dependent failure model to compute the reliability in a telecommunication network. We use the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula model, which captures failures that arise simultaneously in groups of links. In practice, this model is difficult to calibrate because it requires the estimation of a number of parameters that is exponential in the number of links. We formulate an optimization problem to calibrate a MO copula model to attain given marginal failure probabilities for all links and the correlations between them. Using a geographic failure model, we calibrate various MO copula models using our methodology, we simulate them, and we benchmark the reliabilities thus obtained. Our experiments show that considering the simultaneous failures of small and connected subsets of links is the key to obtain a good approximation of reliability, confirming what is suggested by the telecommunication literature.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84999233466&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference article

AN - SCOPUS:84999233466

VL - 1727

SP - 28

EP - 31

JO - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

JF - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

SN - 1613-0073

Y2 - 21 November 2016 through 22 November 2016

ER -