TY - JOUR

T1 - An age-structured model for the coupled dynamics of HIV and HSV-2

AU - Kapitanov, Georgi

AU - Alvey, Christina

AU - Vogt-Geisse, Katia

AU - Feng, Zhilan

PY - 2015/8/1

Y1 - 2015/8/1

N2 - Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in inuencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

AB - Evidence suggests a strong correlation between the prevalence of HSV-2 (genital herpes) and the perseverance of the HIV epidemic. HSV-2 is an incurable viral infection, characterized by periodic reactivation. We construct a model of the co-infection dynamics between the two diseases by incorporating a time-since-infection variable to track the alternating periods of infectiousness of HSV-2. The model considers only heterosexual relationships and distinguishes three population groups: males, general population females, and female sex workers. We calculate the basic reproduction numbers for each disease that provide threshold conditions, which determine whether a disease dies out or becomes endemic in the absence of the other disease. We also derive the invasion reproduction numbers that determine whether or not a disease can invade into a population in which the other disease is endemic. The calculations of the invasion reproduction numbers suggest a new aspect in their interpretation - the class from which the initial disease carrier arises is important for understanding the invasion dynamics and biological interpretation of the expressions of the reproduction numbers. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the role of model parameters in inuencing the model outcomes. The results are discussed in the last section.

KW - Age-structure

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - Co-infection

KW - HIV

KW - HSV-2

KW - Invasion reproduction number

KW - Mathematical epidemiology

KW - Partial differential equations

KW - Population dynamics

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Sexually transmitted diseases

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84927643833&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803

DO - 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.803

M3 - Article

C2 - 25974346

AN - SCOPUS:84927643833

SN - 1547-1063

VL - 12

SP - 803

EP - 840

JO - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

JF - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

IS - 4

ER -