Against the Latin American Current? Conditions and Mechanisms of Decarceration in Chile

Latin American countries have experienced a significant rise in incarceration rates over the past three decades (1995–2025). In this regional context, Chile presents an exception. After a significant increase in the 2000s, its incarceration rate was reduced by 33% between 2010 and 2020. This paper investigates the conditions that facilitated this decarceration process. Using individual-level administrative data on prison entries and exits, along with aggregate administrative data from different criminal justice agencies, we identify four likely components of the decarceration process: variations in crime detection and arrest rates; the expansion of non-custodial sanctions; an increase in the use of parole, and a gradual reduction in the average duration of prison stays. We engage with theoretical discussions on penal change, emphasizing the role of proximate causes—specific legal and political processes—over broader background causes such as the rise of neoliberalism or late modernity. However, we also highlight the volatility of penal trends in Chile. By 2021, rising concerns over crime, high-profile criminal cases, and political shifts led to a reversal of the decarceration trend. The Chilean case underscores the contingent and reversible nature of penal change, offering insights into broader discussions on the dynamics of punishment in Latin America and beyond.