TY - JOUR
T1 - A joint analysis proposal of nonlinear longitudinal and time-to-event right-, interval-censored data for modeling pregnancy miscarriage
AU - de la Cruz, Rolando
AU - Lavielle, Marc
AU - Meza, Cristian
AU - Núñez-Antón, Vicente
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024
PY - 2024/11
Y1 - 2024/11
N2 - Pregnancy in-vitro fertilization (IVF) cases are associated with adverse first-trimester outcomes in comparison to spontaneously achieved pregnancies. Human chorionic gonadotrophin β subunit (β-HCG) is a well-known biomarker for the diagnosis and monitoring of pregnancy after IVF. Low levels of β-HCG during this period are related to miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy, and IVF procedure failures. Longitudinal profiles of β-HCG can be used to distinguish between normal and abnormal pregnancies and to assist and guide the clinician in better management and monitoring of post-IVF pregnancies. Therefore, assessing the association between longitudinally measured β-HCG serum concentration and time to early miscarriage is of crucial interest to clinicians. A common joint modeling approach is to use the longitudinal β-HCG trajectory to determine the risk of miscarriage. This work was motivated by a follow-up study with normal and abnormal pregnancies where β-HCG serum concentrations were measured in 173 young women during a gestational age of 9–86 days in Santiago, Chile. Some women experienced a miscarriage event, and their exact event times were unknown, so we have interval-censored data, with the event occurring between the last time of the observed measurement and ten days later. However, for those women belonging to the normal pregnancy group; that is, carrying a pregnancy to a full-term event, right censoring data are observed. Estimation procedures are based on the Stochastic Approximation of the Expectation–Maximization (SAEM) algorithm.
AB - Pregnancy in-vitro fertilization (IVF) cases are associated with adverse first-trimester outcomes in comparison to spontaneously achieved pregnancies. Human chorionic gonadotrophin β subunit (β-HCG) is a well-known biomarker for the diagnosis and monitoring of pregnancy after IVF. Low levels of β-HCG during this period are related to miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy, and IVF procedure failures. Longitudinal profiles of β-HCG can be used to distinguish between normal and abnormal pregnancies and to assist and guide the clinician in better management and monitoring of post-IVF pregnancies. Therefore, assessing the association between longitudinally measured β-HCG serum concentration and time to early miscarriage is of crucial interest to clinicians. A common joint modeling approach is to use the longitudinal β-HCG trajectory to determine the risk of miscarriage. This work was motivated by a follow-up study with normal and abnormal pregnancies where β-HCG serum concentrations were measured in 173 young women during a gestational age of 9–86 days in Santiago, Chile. Some women experienced a miscarriage event, and their exact event times were unknown, so we have interval-censored data, with the event occurring between the last time of the observed measurement and ten days later. However, for those women belonging to the normal pregnancy group; that is, carrying a pregnancy to a full-term event, right censoring data are observed. Estimation procedures are based on the Stochastic Approximation of the Expectation–Maximization (SAEM) algorithm.
KW - Dynamic prediction
KW - Joint modeling
KW - Longitudinal data
KW - Nonlinear mixed effects models
KW - Right-interval censored data
KW - Time-to-event data
KW - Weibull hazard rate function
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85205371125&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2024.109186
DO - 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2024.109186
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85205371125
SN - 0010-4825
VL - 182
JO - Computers in Biology and Medicine
JF - Computers in Biology and Medicine
M1 - 109186
ER -