In the context of localized unemployment rates in France, we study the issue of prediction of spatial econometric models for areal data, by applying the prediction formulas gathered and derived in Goulard et al. (Spatial Economic Analysis, 12(2-3), 304-325, 2017), (2017). To model regional unemployment taking into account local interactions, we estimate several spatial econometric model specifications, namely, the spatial autoregressive SAR and SDM models, as well as the SLX model.We consider both types of predictions, namely, in-sample and out-of-sample prediction. We show that the prediction can be a complementary method to testing procedures for model comparison.
|Title of host publication||Advances in Contemporary Statistics and Econometrics|
|Subtitle of host publication||Festschrift in Honor of Christine Thomas-Agnan|
|Publisher||Springer International Publishing|
|Number of pages||18|
|State||Published - 14 Jun 2021|