TY - JOUR
T1 - Overconfidence in personnel selection
T2 - When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions
AU - Kausel, Edgar E.
AU - Culbertson, Satoris S.
AU - Madrid, Hector P.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2016/11/1
Y1 - 2016/11/1
N2 - Overconfidence is an important bias related to the ability to recognize the limits of one's knowledge. The present study examines overconfidence in predictions of job performance for participants presented with information about candidates based solely on standardized tests versus those who also were presented with unstructured interview information. We conducted two studies with individuals responsible for hiring decisions. Results showed that individuals presented with interview information exhibited more overconfidence than individuals presented with test scores only. In a third study, consisting of a betting competition for undergraduate students, larger overconfidence was related to fewer payoffs. These combined results emphasize the importance of studying confidence and decision-related variables in selection decisions. Furthermore, while previous research has shown that the predictive validity of unstructured interviews is low, this study provides compelling evidence that they not only fail to help personnel selection decisions, but can actually hurt them.
AB - Overconfidence is an important bias related to the ability to recognize the limits of one's knowledge. The present study examines overconfidence in predictions of job performance for participants presented with information about candidates based solely on standardized tests versus those who also were presented with unstructured interview information. We conducted two studies with individuals responsible for hiring decisions. Results showed that individuals presented with interview information exhibited more overconfidence than individuals presented with test scores only. In a third study, consisting of a betting competition for undergraduate students, larger overconfidence was related to fewer payoffs. These combined results emphasize the importance of studying confidence and decision-related variables in selection decisions. Furthermore, while previous research has shown that the predictive validity of unstructured interviews is low, this study provides compelling evidence that they not only fail to help personnel selection decisions, but can actually hurt them.
KW - Behavioral decision theory
KW - Conscientiousness
KW - Evidence-based management
KW - General mental ability
KW - Hiring decisions
KW - Human resource management
KW - Judgment and decision making
KW - Overconfidence
KW - Personnel selection
KW - Unstructured interviews
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84982817552&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.obhdp.2016.07.005
DO - 10.1016/j.obhdp.2016.07.005
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84982817552
SN - 0749-5978
VL - 137
SP - 27
EP - 44
JO - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
JF - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
ER -