Modelling cost-effective pathways for natural gas infrastructure: A southern Brazil case study

Iván García Kerdan, Francisca Jalil-Vega, James Toole, Sachin Gulati, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations


Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulation-based integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct cost-optimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.

Original languageEnglish
Article number113799
JournalApplied Energy
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2019
Externally publishedYes


  • Brazil
  • Energy systems model
  • Gas infrastructure
  • Infrastructure cost
  • Natural gas
  • Optimisation


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