TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling cost-effective pathways for natural gas infrastructure
T2 - A southern Brazil case study
AU - García Kerdan, Iván
AU - Jalil-Vega, Francisca
AU - Toole, James
AU - Gulati, Sachin
AU - Giarola, Sara
AU - Hawkes, Adam
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors would like to acknowledge the Sustainable Gas Institute, Imperial College London and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under the Newton Fund (NERC reference: NE/N018656/1) for funding this work.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulation-based integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct cost-optimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.
AB - Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulation-based integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct cost-optimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.
KW - Brazil
KW - Energy systems model
KW - Gas infrastructure
KW - Infrastructure cost
KW - Natural gas
KW - Optimisation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071526674&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113799
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113799
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85071526674
SN - 0306-2619
VL - 255
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
M1 - 113799
ER -