TY - JOUR
T1 - International synchronization of the Mexican states business cycles
T2 - Explaining factors
AU - Mejía-Reyes, Pablo
AU - Rendón-Rojas, Liliana
AU - Vergara-González, Reyna
AU - Aroca, Patricio
N1 - Funding Information:
The first three authors acknowledge financial support from the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT) of Mexico (grant number CB2012/182471, 2016); the last one acknowledges partial funding from FONDAP 15130009-CONICYT of Chile. Also they thank César Iván González-Fabela for excellent research assistance and the anonymous reviewer for very helpful comments. As usual, all remaining errors and omissions are responsibility of the authors.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Inc.
PY - 2018/4
Y1 - 2018/4
N2 - The aim of this paper is to identify the explaining factors of the synchronization of the business cycles of the Mexican states and those of the US economy. The cycle indicator is obtained by de-trending the series of total formal employment (Mexican states) and nonfarm employment and industrial production (US). In general, our panel data model estimations suggest the existence of spatial autocorrelation and significant time-period fixed effects. Also, the estimates indicate a significant and positive effect of the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product (GDP), which may be supplementing the impact of international trade (driven by the most internationally integrated states) and a negative effect of the ratio of remittances to GDP (driven by less integrated states). Finally, the evidence suggests that more similar productive structures yield more synchronized business cycles.
AB - The aim of this paper is to identify the explaining factors of the synchronization of the business cycles of the Mexican states and those of the US economy. The cycle indicator is obtained by de-trending the series of total formal employment (Mexican states) and nonfarm employment and industrial production (US). In general, our panel data model estimations suggest the existence of spatial autocorrelation and significant time-period fixed effects. Also, the estimates indicate a significant and positive effect of the ratio of foreign direct investment to gross domestic product (GDP), which may be supplementing the impact of international trade (driven by the most internationally integrated states) and a negative effect of the ratio of remittances to GDP (driven by less integrated states). Finally, the evidence suggests that more similar productive structures yield more synchronized business cycles.
KW - Growth cycles
KW - International synchronization
KW - Mexican states
KW - Sub-national business cycles
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85041349404&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.najef.2018.01.009
DO - 10.1016/j.najef.2018.01.009
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85041349404
SN - 1062-9408
VL - 44
SP - 278
EP - 288
JO - North American Journal of Economics and Finance
JF - North American Journal of Economics and Finance
ER -