Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: Proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de Abril al 14 de mayo

Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attri-buted to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemen-ted. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R₀=2.5 to R₀=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R₀=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R₀ to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system´s collapse due to shortfall of resources to con-front the COVID-19 pandemic.