Evaluación del riesgo ante el cambio climático de los servicios ecosistémicos de regulación y provisión de agua dulce en la Isla Grande de Chiloé, Chile

The freshwater availability of Chiloé Island is threatened by a probable decrease in precipitation in the XXI century. Therefore, preserving ecosystem services, particularly those linked to water provision and regulation, is crucial for local human development. This study seeks to gauge the risk of these services by considering the ecosystem structure, processes, and human pressures. Employing the risk analytical framework, this study utilized an impact chain and a fuzzy logic tool. This study revealed that 37.5 % of the area faced high risk, 36.4 % medium risk, and 26.1 % low risk. Notably, high-risk concentrations were identified in regions with increased human intervention in the island’s northern region. These outcomes underscore the urgency to implement public policies that embrace naturebased solutions to conserve and restore Ecosystem Services. Such strategies aim to ensure efficient adaptation to climate change, while respecting the island’s local biodiversity.