Effects of front-of-package warning labels on sugar consumption in Chile: a synthetic control analysis

Excessive sugar consumption has been linked to an increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs); therefore, governments have implemented public health and policy actions to reduce sugar consumption. Following this trend, the Chilean government implemented the Food Labelling and Advertising Law in 2016, the first in the world to mandate the inclusion of a front-of-package ‘high in’ warning label when the energy and nutrients of concern exceed established limits. To evaluate the overall effectiveness of this policy after eight years of its implementation, the authors use a synthetic control method to estimate its impact on per capita sugar consumption. Results show that the Food Labelling and Advertising Law effectively reduced sugar consumption, validating its usefulness in tackling the associated rise in non-communicable diseases. However, after three years of continuous reduction of sugar consumption, a significant increase was noted in 2020, even surpassing our counterfactual measure by 2021, raising doubts regarding the long-term effects of this policy. These findings suggest that, although the policy’s short- and mid-term outcomes are promising, some adjustments may be required to ensure its long-term effectiveness.