TY - JOUR
T1 - Economic evaluation of fuel cell-powered OFF-ROAD machinery using stochastic analysis
AU - Reyes-Valenzuela, Mauricio
AU - Sánchez-Squella, Antonio
AU - Barraza, Rodrigo
AU - Osses, Mauricio
AU - Valdivia-Lefort, Patricio
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC
PY - 2022/1/15
Y1 - 2022/1/15
N2 - This study proposes a business model to obtain a successful off-road machinery retrofit using fuel cell technology by the means of evaluating scenarios using the net present value NPV of the project as a figure of merit. Given the uncertainty of some parameters, such as the price of diesel, cost of hydrogen, and cost of technology. It is proposed to carry out a Monte Carlo simulation to sensitize the business model. The results of the simulation declare that the possibility of achieving a positive NPV is increased from 54% considering present conditions to 99% considering projections for the year 2030. The prices of diesel and hydrogen condition the results in a more relevant manner and a price relationship is obtained between these two variables. Taxes could play a key role in the future, according to the results obtained in this study.
AB - This study proposes a business model to obtain a successful off-road machinery retrofit using fuel cell technology by the means of evaluating scenarios using the net present value NPV of the project as a figure of merit. Given the uncertainty of some parameters, such as the price of diesel, cost of hydrogen, and cost of technology. It is proposed to carry out a Monte Carlo simulation to sensitize the business model. The results of the simulation declare that the possibility of achieving a positive NPV is increased from 54% considering present conditions to 99% considering projections for the year 2030. The prices of diesel and hydrogen condition the results in a more relevant manner and a price relationship is obtained between these two variables. Taxes could play a key role in the future, according to the results obtained in this study.
KW - Electromobility
KW - Fuel cells
KW - Hydrogen
KW - Monte Carlo simulation
KW - Retrofitting
KW - Sensitization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85121738195&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.10.247
DO - 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.10.247
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85121738195
SN - 0360-3199
VL - 47
SP - 2771
EP - 2782
JO - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
JF - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
IS - 5
ER -
