Calibrating a dependent failure model for computing reliabilities in telecommunication networks

Omar Matus, Javiera Barrera, Eduardo Moreno, Gerardo Rubino

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

3 Scopus citations


In this work, we propose a methodology for calibrating a dependent failure model to compute the reliability in a telecommunication network. We use the Marshall-Olkin (MO) copula model, which captures failures that arise simultaneously in groups of links. In practice, this model is difficult to calibrate because it requires the estimation of a number of parameters that is exponential in the number of links. We formulate an optimization problem for calibrating an MO copula model to attain given marginal failure probabilities for all links and the correlations between them. Using a geographic failure model, we calibrate various MO copula models using our methodology, we simulate them, and we benchmark the reliabilities thus obtained. Our experiments show that considering the simultaneous failures of small and connected subsets of links is the key to obtaining a good approximation of reliability, confirming what is suggested by the telecommunication literature.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 Winter Simulation Conference
Subtitle of host publicationSimulating Complex Service Systems, WSC 2016
EditorsTheresa M. Roeder, Peter I. Frazier, Robert Szechtman, Enlu Zhou
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)9781509044863
StatePublished - 2 Jul 2016
Event2016 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2016 - Arlington, United States
Duration: 11 Dec 201614 Dec 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)0891-7736


Conference2016 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited States


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