Assessing cycles of mine production and prices of industrial metals

Based on monthly frequency data for the period of January 1995–December 2017, this article characterizes mine production and price cycles of six industrial metals—bauxite, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc. The empirical findings show that the percentage changes of real prices during expansions and contractions considerably exceeded those of world mine production of the different metals. The evidence also suggests low concordance between mine production and real price cycles. In some instances, production responded to real price booms with a 3- or 2-year lag. It is conjectured that investment timing and exploration trends may be driving forces behind these empirical findings.