Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations


Part of a prediction is the judgment applied by the forecaster. This judgmental input may be affected by the forecaster's mood swings, which have been shown to affect, for example, stock market returns. The present paper analyzes the extent to which mood (approximated by the development in sentiment indicators) affects macroeconomic prediction errors; i.e., whether it explains part of the prediction bias. The evidence suggests that mood can explain part of the error in inflation and output growth predictions, and hence, that anomalies should be taken into account when trying to understand expectation formation and assess the uncertainty related to private forecasters’ point predictions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1100-1107
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Issue number3
StatePublished - 1 Jul 2019
Externally publishedYes


  • Anomalies
  • Macroeconomic predictions
  • Prediction errors
  • Private forecasters
  • Survey expectations


Dive into the research topics of 'Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this